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 from Pentagon

Imagining the Unthinkable

An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security - October 2003
By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall

Preface - The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current
research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United
States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and
reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this
project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First,
they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather
than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and
would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered
immediately.

Conclusion
It is quite plausible that within a decade the evidence of an imminent abrupt climate
shift may become clear and reliable. It is also possible that our models will better
enable us to predict the consequences. In that event the United States will need to
take urgent action to prevent and mitigate some of the most significant impacts.
Diplomatic action will be needed to minimize the likelihood of conflict in the most
impacted areas, especially in the Caribbean and Asia. However, large population
movements in this scenario are inevitable. Learning how to manage those
populations, border tensions that arise and the resulting refugees will be critical.
New forms of security agreements dealing specifically with energy, food and water
will also be needed. In short, while the US itself will be relatively better off and with
more adaptive capacity, it will find itself in a world where Europe will be struggling
internally, large number so refugees washing up on its shores and Asia in serious
crisis over food and water. Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life.

Imagining the Unthinkable
World Bank, Pentagon: global warming red alert - Monday, February 23, 2004
A world thrown into turmoil by drought, floods, typhoons. Whole countries rendered uninhabitable. The capital of the Netherlands submerged. The borders of the US and Australia patrolled by armies firing into waves of starving boat people desperate to find a new home. Fishing boats armed with cannon to drive off competitors. Demands for access to water and farmland backed up with nuclear weapons. Sound like the ravings of doom-saying environmental extremists? It's actually the latest Pentagon report on how to ready America for the coming climate Armageddon.

Here

posted by: Whitebeard at 12:28 | link | comments |